2013 real estate and economy predictions | MetaFilter

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SFH in Victoria/Vancouver isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

It already is, at least in Vancouver.

You simply cannot indefinitely sustain a median home price of over $1,000,000 when the average household makes less than $70,000. The zero-down and cash-back mortgages are gone, as are the CMHC-insured mortgages with amortizations of 40, 35, and 30 years. Not only is the government no longer pulling out all of the stops to keep housing prices rising, it's pushing a few back in.

I don't own a ghost that's been leveraged on a bogus future value like what happened in the US.

Real values of real estate can't rise above what people can afford in the long term. Incomes in Victoria haven't gone up nearly as much in the past ten years as housing, and it doesn't look like the provincial or federal governments are going on a spending spree anytime soon.

The idea that desire equals demand is silly. It's desire plus money. It doesn't matter if a billion more people want to buy a house in Toronto if none of them make enough money to spend $400,000 on it.

delight, glee, and gloating when the bubble there finally popped (despite their friends and family being in a world of pain which most of them are still in)

The damage to their friends and family was done during the runup, not the correction.

Unlike the US in the aughts, the things fueling the demand for condos aren't illusory. Canada doesn't have NINA loans.

If only. What do you call it when mortgages can be more than one of: stated-income, zero-down, and cash-back? It's a good thing that this was tightened up over the summer. The banks are still all too happy to lend you enough rope to hang yourself with because they won't take the loss; CMHC will.
posted by one more dead town's last parade at 9:58 PM on January 1

? Older Raynoth and Zelanna are buddies, play videogames t...??|??If you think you can magic us ... Newer ?

Source: http://www.metafilter.com/123369/2013-real-estate-and-economy-predictions

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