Windows Phone Marketshare - Business Insider

Good question.

However, if you want an honest opinion, it's usually best to go straight to the source. A former GM who used to work on Windows Phone 7 for Microsoft, Charlie Kindel, took to his personal blog today with some thoughts on why Microsoft's mobile efforts seem so stagnant.

It boils down to carriers, manufacturers, and the companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft who make the operating system are all locked in this big three-way pissing contest to see who gets the most say in marketing a device.

According to Kindel, Android is crushing iOS and Windows Phone 7 when it comes to marketshare simply because its open platform allows manufacturers and carriers to get away with whatever they want, while cranking out dozens of devices a year.

And yes, that means bloatware, nasty skins, and fragmentation on your Android phone. But it also means carriers get to promote the hell out of those phones thanks to their massive marketing budgets.

Here's Kindel:

Google has been wildly successful with Android (at least in terms of units) because Android was built to reduce friction between all sides of the market. It ?bows down? to the device manufactures AND the carriers. It enabled device manufactures to do what they do best (build lots of devices). It enabled carriers to do what they do best (market lots of devices). It enabled users tons of choice. My hypothesis is that it also enables too much fragmentation that will eventually drive end users nuts.

On the other hand, although Windows Phone 7 can be licensed to any device, Microsoft has a set of specs each manufacturer must follow in order to ensure the best user experience. It's not as perfect as Apple's approach of designing both the hardware and software, but it's a whole lot better than letting manufacturers and carriers run wild and causing a massive fragmentation problem where even phones that are barely a year old miss out on the latest updates.

Microsoft's approach seems nice and balanced. It evens the power struggle between the carrier, manufacturer, and OS developer. Unfortunately, as MG Siegler points out, it may be too late:

But Apple could also afford to do this because they were first to market. When the iPhone launched in 2007, the other smartphones on the market were shit. There was no actual competition for the iPhone. The first Android phones that launched over a year later were a joke.?

Contrast that with Windows Phone which launched far too late into the market. Kindel never mentions it, but you simply can?t downplay that fact. Had Windows Phone launched in 2007 or even 2008, the story would have been different. Instead, it launched in?late 2010.

I think next year is going to be the make or break moment for Windows Phone. The long awaited Nokia Lumia 800, which is an excellent device, will finally arrive in the U.S. With it comes all of Nokia's marketing might that Kindel thinks Windows Phone is missing. If Nokia delivers a dud, it could easily take Windows Phone down with it.

UPDATE:?Robert Scoble jumped into the conversation, so I figured it would be prudent to include his thoughts on why Windows Phone 7 continues to stink. Scoble thinks it's because Windows Phone still doesn't have the vibrant app ecosystem that you find on iOS and Android:

Now, let?s look at the ads on TV right now. There?s all sorts of people saying to get their app, including the local TV news departments. Do they talk about Android? Yes, of course. iOS? Of course! Windows Phone 7? Hell no. RIM/Blackberry? I haven?t heard that in an app advertisement in, well, forever.

So, when a consumer goes into a carrier store to buy a new phone, what is going on in the back of her/his head?

Android=safe.
iOS/iPhone=safe.
Everything else=not safe.

I agree, although I think Scoble downplays the Lumia's importance. Yes, it's going to be tough for Nokia to convince developers to start cranking out apps, but Google went through the same thing with Android. And they seem to be doing a lot better now.

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/windows-phone-marketshare-2011-12

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